7am Saturday is a weekly email I send at 7am every Saturday where I share brief and relevant thoughts on money or investing. Enter your email address below to subscribe:

7am Saturday

September 21, 2019

I hope you had a great week! Today I want to introduce my new email newsletter titled, 7am Saturday.

Here’s the story behind it. Last week I was in Denver meeting with my coaches along with some of the top financial advisors in wealth management today. Before our meetings every morning I went to breakfast at this amazing place called Snooze. I had never heard of Snooze until last week, but apparently you can currently experience Snooze across neighborhoods in Colorado, California, Arizona, Texas, and North Carolina. If you ever find yourself close to one I recommend you give it a try.

So, while I was there I found myself wanting to share the experience with others. Preferrably, my wife, but then I remembered she’s not much of a morning person:-)

Throughout the week, a major topic of our meetings was, “how do we spread our message to others in a way that is interesting?” Of course there are many ways for advisors to do this including social media, videos, and blog posts. But, the idea that I seemed to keep coming back to was a weekly email.

I know what you’re thinking… The last thing you want is another email to read. But what if this email was different? What if it’s actually something you looked forward to getting every single week? Surely, you have other emails you get like that, right?

So, on the filght home, an idea was born. What if I sent you an email every single Saturday at 7am with some brief, but relevant, thoughts on money or investing? To make it a little more fun, what if I also share things I learned or experienced throughout the week? Things like interesting articles I’ve read, the podcasts I’m enjoying, the books I recommend, or the places I’ve been. The stuff in my newsletter would be the stuff I’d want to share with you if I could actually meet with you for breakfast every single Saturday.

The more I’ve thought about this, the more excited I am. There’s a lot I want to share with you. I’ve decided it must happen. And that’s how 7am Saturday was born.

As the name implies I will be sending you an email at 7am every Saturday. Now, if we were actually sitting down for breakfast, I certainly wouldn’t want to be the only one talking. So, I hope to hear from you too. An easy way to engage with me is for you to hit ‘Reply’ and let me know what is your biggest financial question right now.

Okay, sorry for the long introduction, but I felt like it was necessary. Let’s get on to this week’s content…

News you need to know: The Fed cut short term interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on Wednesday for the second time this year. The Federal Funds rate is now at 2%. Chairman Powell gave two reasons for cutting rates:

  1. Business “uncertainty” and slower global growth.
  2. The Fed’s view on the appropriate level of rates to sustain growth has “changed significantly” towards a lower path.
After 2 rate cuts this year, the US Federal Funds Rate is now at 2.00%.

 

In my view, the two rates cuts we’ve seen this year were not needed, and I find it hard to justify further rate cuts with the strong economic growth we’ve seen over the past two years.

The Fed seems to be buckling under pressure from President Trump and the “uncertainty” around the trade dispute.

Unlike prior Presidents, Trump has publicly put a lot of pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

 

The trade dispute remains the front and center issue holding back the markets. Uncertainty around global trade is also holding back economic activity. Unless we resolve the trade dispute soon (unlikely) my best guess is that the Fed will continue with one more rate cut (0.25%) this year.

What this means for you: Low interest rates have provided quite a bit of stimulus to the economy for both the consumer (the housing market remains strong thanks to low interest rates on mortgages) and businesses (low borrowing costs). While the Fed funds rate isn’t directly tied to mortgage rates, there is a high degree of correlation.

We are currently seeing 30-year mortgage rates at 3.73%, down from 4.60% a year ago. Historically, the 30-year mortgage rate reached upwards of 18.6% in 1981 and went as low as 3.3% in 2012 averaging 8.02% since 1971. Current rates are very near all time lows offering you an incredible opportunity to buy, build, or refinance your home at very reasonable borrowing costs.

30-year mortgage rates are near all time lows.

 

It looks like many Americans see the same opportunity I see as we received news this week that new housing starts hit their highest level since 2007. The construction of new homes now sits at a 1.364 million annual rate, a new post-recession high. With mortgage rates now down more than 1% from their peak late last year, and wages now growing near the fastest pace in a decade, we have seen quite a boost in affordability.

I am betting that we see a rising trend in home building in the next few years. Based on fundamentals like population growth and scrappage we should be seeing about 1.5 million new housing units per year in the US, but we haven’t built at that pace since 2006.

Chart of the week: The US stock market (S&P 500) is UP over 19% this year. This is the best start through this point in the year since 1997. We are now just 1% away from all time highs.

S&P 500 YTD % Change – The best start through 9/20 since 1997.

 

Quote I’m pondering:

“Consistency compounds.” -John Maxwell

I have a love/hate relationship with consistency. While I know that being consistent with the right things (saving, working out, reading, etc) can have huge results over time, I can also become bored with too much routine. Or, maybe distracted is a better word than bored. Something new and better comes along and it’s easy to get drawn away from consistently doing the same thing.

But the reality is that success is usually achieved through very tiny gains one day at a time. This applies to virtually everything. Investing. Fitness gains. Wealth creation. Sports. Mastery of a skill.

We just crossed the 17 year anniversary at our firm. We wouldn’t be where we are today if there wasn’t consistency in our work ethic, our values, or our investment strategy.

This works in a negative way too. If we consistently make poor choices, then we’ll end up with terrible results. I know it’s not rocket science, but that doesn’t make it easy.

What skill would you like to master? For me, I’d love to be a better writer. What do I have to do to be a better writer? …write! So, begins this weekly newsletter. What if I can keep this up consistently every week for the next 3 years? That’s 156 newsletters. Maybe issue 156 will be a bit better than this one:-)

Something I’m looking forward to: Heading out on the boat with the family today. It looks like this could be the last day of the season for us with fall sports schedules and cooler weather. 🙁

We’ve enjoyed it this year to say the least. Some of our best days out on the boat this year were during our trip to Norris Lake, TN back in June. The water was like glass, the sun was out, and the marina’s were serving some great food. Lots of famliy memories were made that week. I view the boat as an investment in family that I hope the kids will remember for a lifetime.

For all you Buckeye fans: Here’s a little something to get you ready for today’s game against Miami.

Make it a great day,

Adam

PS – If anytime you get an email from me and you want to share a comment or ask a question, simply hit ‘reply.’ I read every email, and try my best to respond.